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Prakash Gosavi

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Analysis of Pune races (Saturday, September 8)


(Note: This column is meant as an aid for casual race goers, not for serious bettors.)


 
First race @ 1.30 pm
The Glasnost Plate - Div II
(Class V, 1-26; 1400m)
 
The card opens with a bottom class race which, on paper, looks very puzzling at first glance. However, sometimes there is a betting opportunity lurking in such races, as I think there is one in this race. Of course, we may need luck and a prayer to encash it.
 
I am talking about Jacqueline Smile who has run two races this season in upper class to condition herself, and while doing so, has run a reasonably good FINOO pattern of strides in last start when she set the pace. I should think the night odds of 4/1 on her may be considered too lucrative for a solitary FINOO contender in a race (that's not exactly trueto be honest, even My Lucky Star, despite finishing 25 lengths behind the winner in last outing, has also done a FINOO pattern, but then he has been struggling to produce speed for so long, he can be safely ignored, I hope).
 
Selections: Jacqueline Smile 1, Prince Khatoum 2, Ashwa Yodhaa 3.
Recommended as bet: Jacqueline Smile for WIN

 
Second race @ 2 pm
The Rapier Plate
(Class V, 1-26; 2400m)
 
Are Brunello's days in the sun over after winning the Independence Million in a sensational manner? That question will be answered in this race. The M K Jadhav ward to be ridden by Sandesh has opened fav in the night odds (16/10) and will most likely stay favourite at race time too. However, I think he may not represent value for money at that price level because he will have a fight on hand from at leat two of his three rivalsSwift Memories, who will definitely be much fitter today than she was during her first show this season, and Tara, who almost gave a scare to a three-year-old (Angel Crown) the other day.
 
I am of the opinion that a mile-and-a-half race is generally decided not just on the current form or staying power, but also on the inherent class of the animal, and therefore, I nominate Swift Memories as a bettable proposition.
 
Selections: Swift Memories 1, Tara 2.
Recommended as bet: Swift Memories for WIN

 
Third race @ 2.30 pm
The Champagne Gold Plate
(Class II, 60-86; 1600m)
 
Will Agni Baan, winnner in last start (incidentally, over the same trip as today's), be able to give a chunk of weight to another last-outing winner, Limitless Hills? Or will another last start winner Spirit Of Mercy surprise both of them? This race poses more questions than expected from a race involving only five horses.
 
I am tempted to vote for Limitless Hills only because his last victory I thought was more impressive than either Agni Baan or Spirit Of Mercy.
 
Selections: Limitless Hills 1, Agni Baan 2, Spirit Of Mercy 3.
Recommended as bet: None

 
Fourth race @ 3 pm
The Pleasures Plate
(Class III, 40-66; 1200m)
 
Despite a sizeable penalty, Rising Power can hold his own in this class and in this set. The speedy customer from Dallas Todywalla's yard today takes on Brave Vision & King Julien, the former is a credit to trainer Sunderji who has maintained the horse in winning condition despite unusually long gaps; and the latter, a talented but unpredictable customer whose last victory gave hint that he may have finally hit sustainable form to advance through the handicap classes.
 
I would have generally advised staying away from such a race, but only because Rising Power has done a brilliant FINOO pattern when winning last time, I think he will be able to contain the challenge posed by the two main rivals and the rest. Also, there is a possibility that the odds on Rising Power will go up at race time, and if that happens, the increase in odds should more than compensate for the risk involved. 
 
Selections: Rising Power 1, King Julien 2, Brave Vision 3.
Recommended as bet: Rising Power for WIN

 
Fifth race @ 3.30 pm
The Giacosa Plate
(Class V, 1-26; 2000m)
 
The main contenders here appear to be Mountain Force (who gets a top rider for the first time this season), Perfect Strength (who finished on well in last start in higher class), Friendly (whose last run is best ignored) & Cavalryman (who, in race #46, locked "nose" with a horse [Brunello] who, ironically, is running as favourite in a class III race today).
 
Selections: Mountain Force 1, Cavalryman 2, Friendly 3.
Recommended as bet: None

 
Sixth race @ 4 pm
The Odds On Trophy
(Class I, 80 & upwards; 1400m)
 
Scarlet Pimpernel's manner of victory & Dancing Glance's narrow miss qualify them as prime contenders. However, the race may prove far more tricky than that because Dear Henry, who is going out today with equipment change (Blinkers ON), has been excelling on the trial track recently, and is capable of running a big race over this trip. To make matters worse, the nine-year-old Pepe Junior now enjoys a 3-kg pull vis-a-vis Scarlet Pimpernel, and Vittoria, who reeled off three races in a row last year on this track and who recently ran only four lengths behind Capriole & Alma Mater in a Terms race, is gradually returning to fitness.
 
When all the five have some reason to dream of success, the race is best left alone from the betting point of view.
 
Selections: Dancing Glances 1, Scarlet Pimpernel 2, Pepe Junior 3.
Recommended as bet: None

 
Seventh race @ 4.30 pm
The Akkasaheb Maharaj Trophy
(For 4y&over; 1200m)
 
Attila & Bespoke, the two highly regarded sprinters who flopped in their last effort at Bangalore but are now shaping up well on the trial track, cannot be ignored here. But I think the other colt from the same yard, Amadeus, is a more serious contender because he stretched himself well to win over seven furlongs which was not exactly his most favourite trip, and is now returning his pet trip of six furlongs. The Bezen Chenoy-trained Nefyn, after a lung-opener, is now entrusted to Dashrath Singh, and also seems to be fit for the fray.
 
Having said that, my first choice for the race, however, is the Mansoor Shah-trained Ancient Wonder. This horse who relishes a good spell ofrest, had two losing runs in a quick span of two weeks, but has now been rested for nearly a month. And I think this factor alone may make him a very strong contender in this set.
 
Selections: Ancient Wonder 1, Amadeus 2, Attila 3.
Recommended as bet: None

 
Eighth race @ 5 pm
The September Handicap
(For 3y, Class IV, 20-46; 1600m)
 
Rembrandt who, on debut, started devouring ground after the fate of the race was sealed by winner Brynhill, should run a big race in second start, and is clearly the one everyone will have to beat. The ones who can hope to challenge the Pesi Shroff ward are Fire Engine, Home Advantage & Song Dynasty.
 
Selections: Rembrandt 1, Fire Engine 2, Home Advantage 3.
Recommended as bet: None

 
Ninth race @ 5.30 pm
The Glasnost Plate - Div I
(Class V, 1-26; 1400m)
 
I will be frank. I think Trump Card can run a far better race than suggested by the market perception (she is not even listed in the night odds, and may run friendless at race time too), but I don't have the guts to nominate her with F Irani declared to ride. Queen Of Venus & Star Fire Lady may be favoured in the betting, but they will have to be watchful of the older Pound Foolish (Sandesh up).
 
Selections: Queen Of Venus 1, Star Fire Lady 2, Pound Foolish 3. Upset: Trump Card
Recommended as bet: None

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author’s personal views.)

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