From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Friday, 23rd March 2018 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 22 Mar 2018
From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Friday, 23rd March 2018
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No.1 :- The Samuel Nathan Plate – Class III & IV – Distance :- 1600M
BRABOURNE :- Lightly raced 5 year old mare from the ImtiazSait yard who has run 10 times till date and has 2 wins to her name so far, both of those coming over 1400M. She has been relatively consistent throughout her career over middle distances except for one poor run very early this season where she finished down the field. She was given a 2 month break, reappearing in this class in January and finishing a close 5th to Aurelia and last time out over a mile, she looked back in form when finishing a close 2nd to Brainstorm conceding weight. That run should have put her spot on for this, P. Trevor who was up that day keeps the ride, she has been working well and with the yard in excellent form at the moment, she appears to be the most likely winner in this field.
TAKE FIVE :- 4 year old filly trained by MaleshNarredu, she has run 8 times so far over varying trips and has managed to win just once, that win being a bloodless victory over 1400M back in October. She ran two good races early in the current season, finishing a half length 2nd to Turning Point over a mile on the opening day and then a close 3rd to Glorious Eyes and Zanara over 1800M next time out. She was taken to Chennai for a tilt at the South Indian Oaks where she ended a distant 3rd to Masquerade and then returned to Mumbai to contest the Indian Oaks where she was well beaten. She has been rested and freshened up since then and returns to handicaps and is dropped back to this trip. P.S. Chouhan takes the ride and if returning to her early season form, she could rate as a big danger.
GRAND VITESSE :- Aged 6 year old from the stable of HosidarDaji, he is a veteran of 27 races with 2 wins to his credit, one of those wins coming in the lower class back in December where he scored a solid success over 1400M. Since being upped to this grade, he has been quite consistent in similar contests with a 3rd place and two 4th places to his name but he looks to be in the handicapper’s grip at present and will need to pull out some more improvement if he is to progress again. He has been working well which he usually does anyway and K. Nazil claims 3 ½ kilos in the saddle but he looks to have more of a place chance today and is likely to fight it out for minor honours.
CARNIVAL :-Another sparingly raced 5 year old mare, this one from the leading stable of Pesi Shroff, she has raced just 7 times till date, twice previously this season and gained her maiden success over this trip back in December when just about holding off Sumaaq and Red’s Revenge to win narrowly. She made her debut run in this class back in January but could only manage to finish a poor 3rd behind Drogo and Mount Mckinley and she has been given time to improve since then. She comes out 1 ¾ length worse off with Brabourne on a line through Zanzibaar but has been worked solidly over the last 2 months and could have found some improvement. A. Sandesh takes over in the saddle for the first time and if she has managed to find some improvement then she can be involved.
CONCLUSION :-Brabourneis the selection here as she finished on well last time out suggesting that she was ready to strike and appears to hold most of these on handicap. Take Five looks the main danger returning after an unsuccessful stint in Classic races while the bottom weighted Carnival can also threaten if she has improved.
Race No. 2 :- The P.A. d’Avoine Trophy – Div. II – Class IV – Distance :- 1400M
KIMBERELLA:-Lightly raced 4 year old Western Aristocrat filly from the in form yard of ImtiazSait, she has run 4 times till date but her form has been erratic and it is hard to judge her true ability. After being given an educative run over a mile back in Pune, she reappeared here with a smashing maiden success again over a mile, easily beating Sagittarius and Arashi who have gone on to perform well. However, her 2 recent runs in handicap company have been disappointing and she looks to have something to prove now. Tried over a mile and a quarter in January, she ended a dismal 7th to Sagittarius and last time out dropped back to a mile, she was a poor 5th to In It To Win It. She further drops in trip back to 7 furlongs but appears to have found a relatively weaker field to tackle now and merits each way consideration with C.S. Jodha replacing SurajNarredu in the saddle.
ARSENAL :-Aged 7 year old mare from the Shazaan Shah yard who is a winner of just 1 of her 23 starts till date but has been skilfully brought down in the scales to what looks an attractive mark. Her win came back in March 2016 over course and distance but she has been sparingly raced since then and gave signs of rediscovering some form in her last run where she made good late progress to finish up a close 4th to Lilac Time over 1200M with the same rider up. She has been kept fresh since then with practically no track work since the run an although she is unlikely to improve a great deal, she looks to have an each way chance in this company and is worth considering as an outsider.
GRAND TENTON :- 4 year old gelding who is a full brother to Athenaeus and a half brother to Yellow Diamond from the stable of Vishal Gaikwad and after being given an educative run over 1000M just a month and a half ago on debut, he showed good improvement and hinted at ability when finishing on late to be an eye catching 2nd to Untitled with Kishore Kadam in the saddle. He is being turned out again quickly in just 2 weeks time but is likely to have progressed again and A. Sandesh takes over in the saddle which is a big positive. He looks likely to relish the additional furlong and with normal progression, appears to have an excellent chance to make it 3rd time lucky.
BRONX :-Fashionably bred 4 year old gelding trained by NosherCama, he is by China Visit out of the successful line of Blue Ridge who has thrown the likes of Kiara, Blue Sky, Blue Lightning and Star of Roses in the past. He made his racing debut in the same race as Grand Tenton finishing almost alongside him and has been working extremely well since that run. P. S. Chouhan has been booked to ride today replacing S. Sunil so connections appear to be much more serious today and he is clearly an unknown quantity who is also expected to have improved. He looks a big danger to Grand Tenton and must be respected.
BHAKTAWAR :- Another bred in the purple 5 year old gelding by Multdimensional out of Almandine, he is a full brother to Indian 1000 Guineas and Deccan Fillies Championship Stakes Winner Godspeed but appears to have had some physical problems as he began his racing career only in October last year and has had 2 starts till date at age 5. He had a lung opener on his solitary run this term back in December over a mile and although he finished 8th he was only 5 ½ lengths behind the winner Carnival and has been brought along steadily since the run. Out station rider Kiran Naidu has been booked to ride for the stable of Arif Patel, he too is open to improvement and looks a dark horse who could spring a surprise on his excellent bloodlines.
CONCLUSION :-Grand Tentonappears the most likely winner here if building on the form of his excellent close 2nd last time out. Sandesh takes over in the saddle and the extra furlong should suit but he faces a couple of interesting rivals in the form of Bronx and Bhaktawar, both of whom are capable of upsetting.
Race No. 3 :- The Cursetjee Dhunjishaw Trophy – Class II – Distance :- 1400M
ODESSA :-Enigmatic 5 year old got abroad trained by MaleshNarredu, he has an excellent win record of 4 wins from 8 starts for a 50% strike rate. Returning to form in April last year, he scored back to back wins over 6 furlongs and then after a poor first effort in Pune over 1200M, he went on to score back to back wins over a mile, the second of those coming on this track on his reappearance in December where he easily got the better of Eternal Sunshine and Jeannine. However, he ran a shocker when favourite on his last run in February when upped to 2000M but finishing a dismal last of 6 behind Daffodils, running like something was clearly amiss. He has been given time to recover from that poor run and his recent workouts suggest that he has improved. Now dropping down to 7 furlongs which is not expected to be a problem and with P.S. Chouhan in the saddle he could very well bounce back to winning ways as his most recent form figures read 6-1-1-6-1-1-6 which suggests that he scores back to back wins after every 6th placed finish. He could be a live force if back to his best and looks dangerous to ignore.
ALLORA :- Well bred 5 year old China Visit mare from the stable of Sanjay Kolse, she has had 3 wins and 5 seconds to her name in her 15 race career so has done well so far and after having raced over sprints for most of her career, stepped up to this trip for the first time on her last run and seemed to get it well enough finishing 3rd to Timeless and a length behind Flag Flying who reopposes today. She is closely matched with that rival on the last run, the winner has gone on to frank the form and with P. Trevor keeping the ride today, she must be respected as she is still unexposed over this trip.
TURNING POINT :-Progressive 4 year old filly from the S.K. Sunderji yard, she has also been quite consistent in her 9 race career so far with 3 wins and 3 close seconds to her name. She has had 4 runs this season, winning twice both times over a mile and finishing a close 2nd once over 1400M. She comes into this fresh off a win over a mile although she made hard work of beating Pugnacious and she seems to do just enough to win her race. She has not been harshly penalized for the win, has been working very well since the run and with C.S. Jodha in the saddle again, she stands a strong chance to repeat with the drop in trip not expected to be a problem.
MOONSHINE :- 4 year old filly trained by Karthik G, she has been hugely progressive this season rattling off 3 wins already in her 5 runs and bouncing back from a couple of modest efforts to win most impressively over this trip last time out with Bhawani Singh up. She has a 6 ½ kilo penalty to contend with for her last win, her mark has risen from 26 to 65 this season and she looks well held by Flag Flying on their last meeting a couple of starts ago so although A. Sandesh takes over in the saddle today and she has been progressing nicely, she looks to have been handed a stiff task and will need to progress again if she is to complete the four timer.
FLAG FLYING :-Front running 5 year old gelding from the yard of H.J. Antia, he has 2 wins and 4 seconds to his name from 14 starts and is usually at his best when allowed to bowl along in front and take a large lead into the straight. He was no match for Timeless last time out but still ended a fair 2nd and looks likely to be allowed to dominate in this small field. He appears to be in good condition at present with H. Zeeshan claiming an additional 3 ½ kilos and if his young apprentice is able to judge the fractions correctly, he could very well win from end to end.
CONCLUSION :-In spite of the small field this looks very competitive and any of the six could make claims to win although Carbonara has been out of form this season. A tentative selection would be Turning Point who won narrowly last time out but looks to have scope to progress further. The enigmatic Odessa and the bottom weighted Flag Flying also can strike if things go their way. All in all this looks a race best avoided from a betting perspective.
Race No. 4 :- The D.W. Reid Plate – Class V – Distance :- 1000M
ABRAXAS :-Speedy 4 year old filly who began her career with Dallas Todywalla before shifting to Narendra Lagad and she is currently still a maiden after 9 starts. She has already had 7 runs till date all over this trip this season and has run well a couple of times, finishing runner up to Blitzkrieg in this grade back in December and then running a close 3rd to Speedo in the higher class. He has been eased in grade after a couple of runs in the higher class, looks to be in decent shape at present and with Dashrath Singh in the saddle and a good draw, she looks to have a strong chance to shed her maiden tag today.
BULLION EXPRESS :- Well bred but now getting on in years at age 7,this gelding from S N Joshi’s yard has a poor overall strike rate of just 1 win from 32 starts, and ran a forward race when dropped into this grade last time over 1200M, finishing a close 4th to Towering Storm with P.S. Chouhan in the saddle. He is further dropped in trip down to 1000M and has C.S. Jodha in the saddle today which looks a positive. He deserves to be given an each way chance off what looks a decent handicap mark but does not seem to be consistent and the percentage call is to oppose him. Rank outsider.
FINANCIER :- Very interesting and well bred maiden 4 year old filly, she is a half sister to Respect and Multiglory, both of whom came into their own over distance trips and but she has raced 7 times over sprints till date in the care of C.D. Katrak, and has done nothing of note till date but has tumbled down in the weights as a result. She has moved to the yard of NosherCama after her last run and is returning from a reasonably long break with S. Sunil in the saddle so this probably could be a trial run for her new trainer. She is unexposed and probably better than her current mark suggests so bears close watching but may be will come in to her down when upped to at least middle distance trips. Interesting outsider.
BEYOND FORCES :- 6 year old mare from the stable of Mansoor Shah, she is an 11 race maiden but has been woefully out of form in the early stages of her career but looked to be coming to hand this season and has showed improvement in her last 2 starts. She finished 3rd to Royal Classic over 1200M early in the season and improved on that when only beaten a length into 3rd over 1200M behind Lilac Time and Isinit. She was withdrawn on her last planned run so is having her first run in 2 months but has been working well and looks a strong each way player with H. Zeeshan up if she can continue her progress.
ALLEGRIA :- 5 year old maiden from the yard of Zadmal Singh, she has run 10 times till date with her best performance being a 3rd placed finish over 1400M last March which was the only other time that P. Trevor has ridden her. She has been woefully out of form in her last several starts but has come down to the lowest class this season and is racing over 1000M for the first time this term. The only thing which makes her worthy of consideration is that P. Trevor has been booked to ride again and if he can bring about some improvement, then she can be involved in the finish .
BOHEMIAN :- Yet another 5 year old maiden, this one from the stables of H.J. Antia, she has run 18 times till date without success but her best runs have come over this trip and she has gone close on a couple of occasions. She was well backed a couple of starts ago over this trip in December but finished on late and had to be runner up to her lesser fancied stable companion. That was a similar contest to today and after having had terrible luck with the draw on many occasions, today she has been fortunate to bag the plum rail draw. G.A. Amit is good value for his claim, rode her last time and she is another who looks to have a good chance to gain an overdue maiden victory.
CONCLUSION :-Another race which is safer to avoid a bet but a chance can be taken on Bohemian if available at lucrative odds. She has showed speed in the past and has been fortunate with the draw today. Beyond Forces and Abraxas are just two in a long list of dangers.
Race No. 5 :- The P.A. d’Avoine Trophy – Div. I – Class IV – Distance :- 1400M
RELENTLESS PURSUIT :-6 year old gelding trained by ImtiazSait who returned after missing the Pune season and took a few runs to hit his best form but took advantage of a good handicap mark last time out to score his 2nd overall success over this trip, battling off Dibaba to win narrowly. That win came in a 5 Years Old & Over contest so although he is only penalized 4 kilos for the win, he has to concede weight all around to the 4 year old which looks to be a tough ask. C.S. Jodha who rode him last time out is up again and he seems to have maintained his condition so he can be considered but looks more of a place contender.
PACIFIC DUNES :-Full brother to Indian Oaks winner Manifold, this 5 year old gelding trained by BezanChenoy has been slightly disappointing in the context of what his illustrious sister has achieved and he has only 2 wins to his name from 14 starts and often runs inconsistently. He was a fluent winner over a mile on his last start in Pune in this class and has run 4 times since in Mumbai with two good runs and two bad ones. He showed signs of regaining lost touch last time out when a late finishing 2nd to Centaurus over this trip but that was again in older company and he may struggle against the 4 year olds. Stable apprentice Santosh G takes the ride and he looks an each way player if he can improve on that last effort.
RINCON :-Front running 4 year old gelding trained by Faisal Abbas, he has been quite consistent in his 10 race career although he has only been able to pass the winning post first on one occasion, shedding his maiden tag over course and distance back in December. After having 2 disappointing runs in handicaps, he looked like he was ready to progress again last time out when he ended up a close 2nd behind Star of Thea with the same rider on board. That run was three weeks ago, he has been working well since and has bagged the plum rail draw which suits his front running style. G.Amit who rode him last time out retains the ride and he looks to have a strong chance to gain his first handicap win in this company.
WE BREAK THE RULES :-Well bred and sparingly raced 4 year old who was earlier trained by C.D. Katrak, had one run with S.A. Waheed and has now moved to Trainer Dallas Todywalla’s yard. He too is a winner of 1 of his 10 starts but his win came way back in Pune in handicap company and he has been struggling in the face of some tough asks since. He too looked to be finding his way back to form last time out when finishing on nicely to be 3rd to In It To Win It and Admo over a mile and if his new trainer can eke out some more improvement then he too could progress off his current mark. He will be ridden by retained rider P.S. Chouhan and is worth keeping an eye on.
PRICELESS ART :- Another lightly raced and scopey 4 year old trained by MaleshNarredu, she began her racing career this season and returns from a short break having run poorly last time out. Finishing on to be a close 2nd over an inadequate 1000M on debut, she showed her ability in a competitive 7 furlong event next time out when finishing on strongly to pip Collegium and Adonijah. However, when fancied next time out against Tanjo, she failed to make further progress and finished a lacklustre 6th so she has been given time to recover from that poor run and has the scope to improve. Her recent track work has been quite promising, NeerajRawal has been booked to ride for the first time today and if overcoming that poor last run, she too could bounce back with a win.
POLYNEICES :-yet another in a bunch of improving 4 year olds, this one is trained by Shazaan Shah and will be ridden by Kishore Kadam replacing H. Zeeshan in the saddle. She has run 9 times till date and stepped up markedly on her previous form when scoring her maiden win with authority over 1200M in the lower class. She has a stiff 6 ½ kilo penalty to tackle for that win which could prove to be a stopper but she too seems to be progressing nicely and should not be troubled by the extra furlong. She merits each way consideration and can be involved.
DIXIELAND :- Comes from the powerful yard of Pesi Shroff but has taken time to come to hand and after three disappointing starts to begin her career, she appears to be going the right way this season. Reappearing over this trip after a long absence, she led for a long way and looked like making it before being collared close home by Till End of Time ending up a gallant 2nd. Promoted to the higher grade and upped to a mile last time out, she showed added fitness and good resilience to battle on and make all the running to score over a mile. The drop to 7 furlongs should be in her favour, she has only been penalized 4 kilos for the win and her draw in Stall 2 favours her front running style but she may be taken on for the lead by Rincon. She looks a progressive sort and is strongly fancied receiving weight all around.
CONCLUSION :-This clearly looks the most competitive race of the day but we will take a chance on Dixieland. Fillies from the Shroff yard improve considerably once they hit form and she has done nothing wrong in her two starts to date and comes in at the bottom of the scale. Priceless Art is unexposed and can strike provided she overcomes her last poor effort while We Break The Rules is also potentially smart and is yet to give off his best.
Race No. 6 :- The V.P. Koreogaonkar Plate – Class IV :- Distance :- 1200M
RIDGEWOOD STAR :-5 year old gelding owned and trained by Dallas Todywalla he has an unenviable record of only 1 win from his 17 starts but has been running quite consistently over sprints without adding to that success. He has run well all 4 starts this term, last time out making late progress over this trip to finish runner up to Alyaties with P. Trevor in the saddle. He has been working well for some time now and seems to have found a relatively weaker field to tackle today. NeerajRawal takes the ride and he is expected to be in the firing line and dispute the finish.
FROSTED :-5 year old mare from the yard of ImtiazSait, she too has only managed to win once in 14 attempts and is usually effective over slightly further so she may find this trip to be on the sharp side. After some consistent runs over 7 furlongs in Pune, she needed the lung opener on her return in January and seemed to be returning to form when finishing a fair 4th last time out behind Centaurus. K. Nazil is replaced in the saddle by stable rider Raghuveer Singh and she is another who merits each way consideration.
FRIBOURG :- Another 7 year old, this one from the yard of Mansoor Shah who has been woefully out of form for some time now but has been skilfully been brought down to what looks an attractive mark now. Winner of the 2nd race of his career, he was rated 44 in his younger days but his mark has now come back down to 28 and he advertised his fitness last time out when ending up a close 3rd to Walk On By over 1200M with a feeble claimer on board. H. Zeeshan takes over in the saddle today and in this mainly older company he looks to have a strong chance to enter the winners circle again.
GOLDEN HORDE :- 5 year old gelding trained by BezanChenoy he has been threatening to strike for some time now and gained an overdue maiden success last time out in the lower class, coming with a strong run to score over course and distance with the same rider up. The win should have given him some confidence and he looks to have the scope to improve further. He is now taking on relatively tougher opposition but looks to have a good chance to repeat with P. Trevor retaining the ride.
ROYAL MEWS :-Well regarded 5 year old mare in the care of Faisal Abbas, she has yet to show what she is truly capable of and remains a maiden after 9 starts so far. After some indifferent efforts earlier in her career, she seems to be hitting form in her last couple of starts, finishing 4th on both occasions and last time out over slightly shorter she ended a close 4th to Locarno albeit in an older horses contest with the same rider on board. She is an unknown quantity who could be just coming right and looks an interesting outsider with K. Nazil once again booked to ride
CONCLUSION :-An open looking finale and Fribourg is the selection to gain a long overdue second success as he has come down considerably in the scales. Mansoor Shah excels at scoring with his older horses and looks likely to add another notch to his belt today. Ridgewood Star and the unexposed Royal Mews could give him the most to do along with last outing winner Golden Horde.
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)