FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR FRIDAY, 24TH NOVEMBER 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 24 Nov 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR FRIDAY, 24TH NOVEMBER 2017
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 :- The Grand Passion Plate – Class IV – Distance :- 1200M
RARE SILVER :- 5 year old gelding from the stables of Imtiaz Sait has run 16 times till date but only picked up form in the latter part of his career. After a string of unplaced efforts in the initial stages, he showed the first signs of form back in February last year when finishing 2nd over 7 furlong and followed that up with a runaway maiden win over this trip in the lower class off a mark of 18. He seemed to be out of form in his first couple of starts in Pune but seemed to be on the way back in his last start again over this trip when finishing up a good 2nd to Jarama with the same rider up. He appears to be taking on a relatively weak field here and with Raghuveer up again, he looks one of the main contenders to make another trip to the winner’s circle and is strongly fancied.
GOOD THING :- Front running 4 year old filly trained by Adhirajsingh Jodha, she has a solitary success to her name in 11 starts till date, the win coming over course and distance almost 2 years ago but against a strong field at that time. She appeared to be a promising sort early in her career but seemed to either have a setback or go off the boil after her first few runs and has been slowly nursed back towards optimum health. After a couple of indifferent runs in Pune, she showed some promise on her last start when running a forward race in a big field and kicking on to finish 5thto Renato about 2 lengths behind Philadelphia who ran 3rd that day. Good Thing is still relatively unexposed if back to her best form and the booking of P. Trevor is most encouraging. She looks a strong contender in this field and has an excellent chance to return to winning ways now.
PHILADELPHIA :- 4 year old maiden sprinter trained by Dallas Todywalla, she has raced exclusively over sprints in 10 starts till date and while she has gone close on a couple of occasions, she does not appear to be progressing and seems to be running upto the same level. She looks capable of shedding her maiden tag at some point in a similar contest to this and last time out finished a modest 3rd a little over 2 lengths ahead of Good Thing. Philadelphia has been working quite well of late and will be ridden by Neeraj Rawal but although she is likely to be on the premises again today and be involved in the finish, she does not inspire from a win standpoint and looks to be a relatively secure place bet.
FURIOSA :- She is a 4 year old filly trained by Faisal Abbas who has run 15 times with 1 win to her name. She normally displays early speed and has been seen to be effective over 5 furlongs so this 6 furlong trip looks likely to stretch her. However, on her last start in Pune, she led from the outset and seemed to last out the 6 furlong trip, finishing up 2nd to Juliano with Sail Past back in 4th. The long Mumbai straight is likely to be more taxing but that last run provides some encouragement and if she is able to harness her energy, then she has a small chance to pull off an upset. Bhawani Singh takes the ride but she looks a long shot.
SAIL PAST :- This 6 year old veteran from Narendra Lagad’s yard has raced a total of 34 times till date and has been successful on 2 occasions scoring back to back wins over 1400M but way back in 2015. Sail Past has come down considerably in the scales over the years and looked to be on a handy mark during the Pune season where he ran a couple of promising races without winning. He did finish a handy 2nd on his penultimate run and last time ran on late to be 4th over this trip with Furiosa a couple of lengths ahead of him in 2nd. The long Mumbai straight will be to his advantage and with his rider claiming a useful 5 kilos, he too appears to have the potential to upset.
CONCLUSION :- Good Thing appears to have the maximum potential amongst these if she has recovered from her earlier setback and with P. Trevor up, looks the most likely winner. The top weighted Rare Silver is the form horse and would be the main danger along with the consistent Philadelphia.
Race No. 2 :- The Star Admiral Plate – Class IV – Distance :- 1600M
PACIFIC DUNES :- This 4 year old gelding from the yard of BezanChenoy is a full brother to Manifold – the current 1000 Guineas hopeful and just appears to be coming into his own himself in his last couple of starts. He initially failed in his first few starts over middle distances and in fact won his maiden over 1000M. However, he has been gradually improving since then and his last two starts have been impressive. He was first nosed out of first place by Zanzibaar in a battling finish over 7 furlongs but made no mistake in his last run over a mile, coming with powerful late run to win authoritatively. He has only been penalized 5 kilos for that win which is fair and his recent trackwork has been exemplary so he looks primed for an encore. Y.S. Srinath and Bezan combined to score with Forest Fairy on the opening day and they look to have an excellent chance to gain another success.
ZANARA :- 3 year old filly from the Dallas Todywalla yard, she has always been highly regarded by her trainer and has done fairly well in her 6 race career. After a promising debut where she just failed to catch Timeless Deeds over 7 furlongs, she ran a shocker over a mile and was promptly retired for the season. She showed gradual progression in each of her runs in Pune and was very impressive when scoring a pillar to post maiden success over 2000M winning by 6 lengths from subsequent winner Baby Face. That prompted connections to take a crack at the Pune Derby but she seemed out of her league, was ridden off the pace and finished well beaten. She has been shining in her morning work of late and in fact finished a length ahead of Ruffina in her last gallop. With P. Trevor taking over and a switch back to forcing tactics, she looks the one to beat.
DIBABA :- 4 year old handicapper trained by Sanjay Kolse, Dibaba is usually effective over middle distances and has been holding her form well since scoring her 2nd career success back in August. Her overall record is 2 wins from 14 starts but since her last win, she has run 2nd to Star Comrade and then 3rd behind Orion’s Belt and Turning Point last time out. All her recent runs have come over 7 furlongs but she has decent form over a mile as well so should not be troubled by the extra distance. With A. Sandesh as yet indisposed, good apprentice S.J. Sunil takes the ride. Dibaba is likely to be involved in the finish and looks a good place prospect but she may find it hard to over turn the top two.
GRAND VITESSE :- Is a quirky 5 year old gelding from the HosidarDaji yard who has run 22 times till date with 1 success over course and distance back in January 2016. He appeared to have a setback after his 2016 campaign and was off the track for almost a year, reappearing this January and has been slowly trying to find his feet since then although he has been working very well for a long time. His last run over 1400M on the concluding day of the Pune season was promising where he finished on to be a close 4th to Timeless Deeds and if he is able to build further on that last run then he can be involved in proceedings. He continues to work well, Neeraj Rawal is an encouraging Jockey booking and he looks a good outsider but comes with risks attached.
PRETTY ANGEL :- 4 year old filly from the powerful yard of Karthik G. she has looked to have her limitations so far and gained a long overdue maiden success last time out at the 19th attempt where she beat Sail Past and Jeena in a close finish over 1400M in the lower class. She has incurred a 5 kilo penalty for the win which should have given her some confidence and she could possibly finally be coming to hand but she is taking on much tougher company today and needs to progress appreciably if she is to have a say again. S. Sunil who rode her last time is up again but she looks up against it in this field .
FENCING :- Lightly raced 4 year old filly from the stable of AdhirajsinghJodha, Fencing has had only 6 runs till date and was impressive on her last run over this trip where she came with a strong late burst to wear down Eternal Dancer and Huzzah’s Grace and score her maiden win. She is likely to improve for that run, this just being her 7th start and the handicapper has given her a chance and not penalized her too harshly. Nirmal Jodha who was up last time as well retains the ride and she is likely to be doing her best work again in the closing stages. She still has to convince that she is straightforward and also needs to step up on the bare form, but she could still have some improvement left in her and would be an interesting contender at probable long odds.
CONCLUSION :-It may be worth giving another chance to the promising 3 year old Zanarawho won her maiden in great style. Assuming that front running tactics will once again be employed and P. Trevor an excellent judge of pace, she could very well win this from end to end. Pacific Dunes seems to be really coming into his own and looks a very big danger. The rest would probably fight it out for minor honours .
Race No. 3 :- The Maharaja Sir Pratapsingh Gaikwad Trophy – Class II – Distance :- 1400M
JEANNINE :- She is now 5 years of age but has only raced 10 times till date, winning 3 of those which is an excellent career strike rate. She was 3rd in the 1000 Guineas in her Classic season and performed well during the last Mumbai season as well. However, she has been off the track for a long time, running just once since April last year, getting a lung opener over 6 furlongs and finishing up 7th. She has been working very well since that run and is sure to improve and strip fitter but looks a touch vulnerable off top weight. She could add some pep to the finish with C.S. Jodha on board but looks to have just a small upset chance.
MANIFOLD :- Already established herself as one of the leading 3 year olds of her generation and is a multi classic winner and a leading contender for the Indian 1000 Guineas. She has a 50% strike rate in 6 starts till date, sweeping all before her in the Bangalore Summer, winning the Fillies Trial and the Derby in good style. However, she suffered a minor blip last time out when taking on Lady In Lace on the latter’s home turf beaten a length and a quarter in the Deccan Fillies Trial. She has been well rested since then and targeted for the Indian 1000 Guineas and is expected to win this convincingly if she is to have a chance at gaining revenge over Lady In Lace. Her prep work has been good and with regular rider Neeraj Rawal up, she looks hard to beat.
THEMIS :- Scopey but inconsistent 3 year old by Lord Shanakill from the yard of M.K. Jadhav, she has 2 wins to her name from 7 starts, her first win coming over Manifold in the Forbes Juvenile Fillies Championship last March. However, that form has been convincingly reversed by Manifold in Bangalore, so in spite of receiving 4 kilos from Manifold, Themis looks unlikely to finish ahead of her. She also needs to bounce back from a shocking effort in the Pune Derby last time out where she was never in the hunt, refused to gallop and finished well beaten. However, it is possible that the stiff Pune track did not suit her, P. Trevor takes the ride today and her lead up work has been very impressive. If returning to her best, she is the one most likely to trouble Manifold with the 4 kilo pull and if quoted at decent odds, may be worth chancing.
BRABOURNE :- Well regarded Phoenix Tower 4 year old from Imtiaz Sait’s yard, she has raced 7 times till date, winning 2 of those runs and appears to be developing into a decent handicapper. She has been consistent in her 3 runs during the Pune season, last time out just pipped late in the day by Odessa over 1600M in the lower class. She is now upped in grade into the higher class and is taking on some potential Classic types so she looks likely to fight it out for minor honours with regular rider Prashant Dhebe flying down to ride.
NELSONS BLOOD :-Consistent front running 4 year old who began his racing at a late stage and has performed well in his 9 starts till date, winning on 2 occasions. He has raced only at a mile until now so takes a slight drop in trip for the first time in his career and appears to be in the race to ensure a fast pace for owner mate Themis. He is likely to be the early leader and could kick on to secure a place with N.S. Parmar booked to ride.
CONCLUSION :-Manifold is a confident selection here to get back to winning ways and gain some confidence going into the 1000 Guineas although her yard’s recent poor form is a concern. Themis would appear to be the main danger with a 4 kilo pull in the weights provided she can bounce back from a dismal run in the Pune Derby
Race No. 4 :- The Kiara Plate – Class III – Distance :- 1000M
SHAMWARI :- Progressive and well bred 3 year old filly trained by Vishal Gaikwad, Shamwari is bidding for a hattrick after 2 impressive 5 furlong victories in the early part of the Pune season making her career record 2 wins from 4 starts. However, she has not raced since August which appears to be a slight negative although she moved well in a couple of recent morning workouts. She has a small field to contend with and H. Zeeshan who gave her a nice ride last time out claims a valuable 5 kilos so if she is fit and well, then she stands an excellent chance to complete her hattrick.
LOIRE :- Another 3 year old, this one from the Narendra Lagad stable who was unbeaten in her 2 runs in Pune and comes into this bidding for a hattrick. Although Shamwari’s form appears to be stronger, Loire has also won both her starts quite convincingly and looks to have maintained her condition judging from her recent track movements. Dashrath Singh would have an edge over H. Zeeshan in a finish and she must be respected and treated as a live danger.
WISE CHILD :- Represents the same owners as Shamwari and probably has the strongest form among this lot, although he finished 3rd on his only run in Pune over 1000M and is also returning after a 3 ½ month break. He finished a close 3rd to House of Commons over 1000M on his only run in Pune and is sure to improve for that run and strip fitter. P.Trevor takes the ride on him today, he has been working well and also looks a very serious contender.
DOUBLE NINE :- 4 year old colt trained by NosherCama, he has run 13 times till date with only 1 win to his name but has finished 2nd on as many as 5 occasions. He ran well in defeat last time out over 1000M in the lower class, finishing just ¾ length behind Quixotic. However, he looks to be taking on some very progressive and speedy 3 year olds so although he is likely to be in the mix and is working quite well with J. Chinoy booked to ride, he looks more of a place contender.
CONCLUSION :- The Vijay Shirke owned duo of Shamwari and Wise Child look likely to fight out the finish. Shamwari appears the more progressive of the pair and is given an edge if she is looking fit and well.
Race No. 5 :- The Excalibur by Nahar Trophy – Maiden 3 Year Olds – Distance :-1200M
CHAPLIN :- Promising looking 3 year old from the stables of Dallas Todywalla, he is by Excellent Art out of Amazing Ray and made his racing debut about 5 weeks ago over this trip and ran encouragingly to finish 3rd to Sereno and Sassy Lass which looks good form. His workouts after the run have been excellent suggesting that he has improved considerably and the yard got off the mark with a good double on the opening day. Chaplin appears to have excellent potential to improve and with J. Chinoy retaining the ride, he looks a leading fancy to win this.
RINCON :- This half brother to Sky Mine from the yard of Faisal Abbas is the highest rated of this lot and also probably the most experienced having run 5 times till date. He has finished 2nd in 2 of this 3 runs during the recent Pune season and appears to have maintained his form and fitness judging from his recent workouts. Although the form of his two second place finishes has not worked out that well, Rincon must be respected in this field and with C.S. Jodha up, he must be given a very good chance.
ACE TWO THREE :-Comes from the NosherCama yard and has had 2 well spaced out runs till date, both over this trip and finishing 4th on both occasions. His last effort in Pune appears to be in a decent contest won by Aurelia and he is likely to improve again. His prep work has not been as impressive as some of these but he appears to be a progressive sort. N.S. Parmar is an interesting booking for the yard and he could run into a place and looks to have an each way chance here
ARC SHINE :- 3 year old grey filly trained by S. N. Joshi, she has had 7 runs till date without success and is now beginning to look a little exposed. She ran 4 times in the recent Pune season, ending up runner up on her first 3 starts and last time out finishing 4th to Stunner. My Precious finished 1 ¼ lengths ahead of her that day and it looks tough for her to reverse that form. S. J. Sunil has been booked to ride today and she could be involved in the finish but looks likely to fight it out for minor honours again today and is only given a slim chance to win.
MY PRECIOUS :- Represents the powerful stable of Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy and is trained by Karthik G. she has a lovely sprinting pedigree but has been inconsistent in her 6 runs so far. She showed good dash on her last run over 1000M where she finished on strongly to be runner up to Stunner and is likely to be suited by the additional furlong. The booking of Y.S. Srinath suggests that connections fancy their chances and if building on that last effort, she looks to have a very good chance.
TENERIFE :- Another nicely bred once raced filly from the S.K. Sunderji yard she too finished 3rd on debut over 1200M where she was beaten 2 ¼ lengths by the more experienced and fitter Arc Shine and she is expected to reverse that form with normal progression. Her workouts after the run have suggested that she has improved and she is well bred, being a full sister to Sans Prix who finished 3rd in the Kolkotta Derby and Bon Vivant who performed well in her limited career for Pesi Shroff. She will be ridden by P. Trevor and looks likely to run a very big race
CONCLUSION :- Expectedly competitive with some potentially decent sorts in the fray. A chance is taken on Chaplin who ran well on debut and is expected to improve for the run. Others worthy of consideration are Tenerife who is also expected to improve with My Precious probably the form pick and the experienced Rincon.
Race No. 6 :- The Great Guns Plate – Div. I – Class V – Distance :- 1400M
XOXO :- 3 year old gelding trained by S.S. Shah, he is a full brother to Milwalkee and a half brother to the very well performed Spirit of Mercy for the same trainer but he has run disappointingly in 4 starts till date, mainly over 7 furlongs. However, he is now making his handicap debut in the lowest grade and his recent work has been encouraging suggesting that he has improved. Y. S. Srinath has been booked to take the ride and against mainly exposed Class V opposition, he would be considered.
DUSKY SIREN :- 4 year old filly from the small stable of Subhag Singh, she has run 6 times till date and has finished 4th on 2 occasions. She was quietly fancied on her first run in Pune in this grade but could only manage 4th to Blavatsky. After a couple of indifferent performances, her last run indicated that she was coming to hand when finishing a close 4th to Fencing over a mile just ahead of Jeena who ran 5th. She has been working quite well and the booking of P. Trevor catches the eye so she looks to have a strong chance in this field.
JEENA :- Experienced 5 year old mare trained by Nirad Karanjawala, she has had 29 runs till date with 2 wins and several placed efforts in similar contests. She is usually quite effective in this grade and off this sort of mark and has been running consistently in Pune and making the frame without looking quite like winning. She finished behind Dusky Siren last time out and looks to lack the scope to progress enough to reverse that form. She can be given a small upset chance with S.J. Sunil booked to ride but could be vulnerable to the improving younger horses.
MAGICAL SCRIPT :- 3 year old filly from the yard of Narendra Lagad she has raced 9 times till date over varying trips with just one promising effort over 1200M when she finished a close 3rd to Superstar Supreme and Costa Brava. She has since run thrice in this company and has failed to figure anywhere so she does not look a reliable type. However, she is running in what looks a very weak field anyway and Dashrath Singh has been declared to ride so she could spring a surprise if in a galloping mood.
FERNEBACHE :- 5 year old colt from the S.K. Sunderji yard who is still a maiden after 11 starts and has a similar profile to Magical Script having run just one decent race when finishing 3rd over 2000M with P. Trevor up. However, he has been working quite well of late, appears to be on a reasonable handicap mark and has a top rider up for only the 2nd time with C.S. Jodha booked today. Hence, he could prove to be a dark horse who could upset and a paddock check is advised.
CONCLUSION :-Extremely open looking contest with very little current form to go by and is best avoided from a betting standpoint. If forced to make a selection, Dusky Siren with P. Trevor up is a tentative choice.
Race No. 7 :- The Great Guns Plate – Div. II – Class V – Distance :- 1400M
DRAGONMOSS :- 3 year old colt who was quite highly campaigned as a juvenile but has done nothing of note in 7 starts till date and does not inspire much confidence in what he has done so far. However, he is respected as being a 3 year old now dropped into the lowest grade and having more scope to improve than the older and more exposed types. Plenty to be taken on trust with him and a leap of faith is required with NirmalJodha up but if he can find some improvement in this lower grade then he could be a factor .
SWEEPING MOVE :- Lightly raced 6 year old mare from the M.A.M. Ramaswamy yard she has run only 11 times till date and nearly pulled off a shrewd gamble on Derby Day last year when pipped by Sussex Pride a few strides from the line. She is returning from a long lay off having not raced since April of this year and skipped the whole Pune season so her fitness is a concern but if she has been well prepared for this reappearance then she stands a very strong chance. Bhawani Singh takes the ride and a paddock check is advised to ascertain her fitness. Can strike if ready to go.
ALFONSO :- 5 year old gelding who is one of 3 runners for the Narendra Lagad yard and appears to be the first choice judging by Jockey bookings. His overall profile is unconvincing with just 1 win from 27 starts but he has been running with promise in his last few starts and came very close to scoring on his penultimate run. He is one of the few who have current form in this field and with Raghuveer Singh up, he needs to be seriously considered.
STAR ACE :- Another inconsistent but well bred 5 year old mare from the Dallas Todywalla yard, she has been trying for some time now over varying trips and finally gained a last gasp maiden victory at the 19th attempt over a mile on her penultimate run in Pune. She then ran very poorly over 2000M next time out so is clearly unreliable. However, Neeraj Rawal appears to be the strongest rider in this field and if that last run is ignored, then she could probably be considered here .
BLACK JAGUAR :- 20 race maiden from the Lagad stable who has tumbled down in the weights to a very attractive mark and he did catch the eye on one of his runs in Pune when making significant late headway to finish just outside the frame over 1000M. He then ran poorly in his next few starts but is likely to be better suited with more galloping ground. B. Nikhil is seldom known for riding winners so he appears the least fancied of the yards 3 runners but he could pop up suddenly and be a stunning upset.
CONCLUSION :-Again very hard to recommend anything with certainty here. Sweeping Move would be given a good chance if she returns fit and well after the long break while Alfonso and Star Ace are the other two with some semblance of recent form
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)