FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SATURDAY, 7TH OCTOBER 2017- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 06 Oct 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SATURDAY, 7TH OCTOBER 2017
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 :- The Capriole Plate – Div. II – Class V – Distance :- 1000M
WARLOCK :- The 4 year old colt is one of three runners from the Narendra Lagad stable and appears to be the most fancied judging from the jockey bookings. He has raced 16 times till date, having just a solitary success to his name where he won on the opening day of the previous Mumbai season, going pillar to post over 1200M in Class V with the same rider up. He often loses his chances by being lethargic at the gates so that is clearly a concern but he returns to this class for the first time since his win and his last run in the higher class was suggestive, finishing a close 5th just outside the frame. He appears to be taking on a rather weak field and looks a strong contender to return to the winner’s circle with Dashrath Singh astride.
BEE QUIRKY :- 4 year old filly trained by H.J. Antia she comes from a good sprinting family with her dam Bee Quick a Class I sprinter in Western India winning 5 of her 8 starts. She has raced 6 times till date and is yet to make the frame but her 2 runs in Pune have been forward ones and she has finished a fair 6th on both occasions finishing around 5 lengths behind the winner. She too is eased in grade and with N. Nadeem claiming an additional 5 kilos off, she would rate as a danger to all in this easier company and merits serious thought as she is untried till date.
RICARDUS :- This 4 year old from the S.K. Sunderji yard has an attractive pedigree with his half brother Apache Sunrise an extremely exciting prospect having won 5 of his 6 starts so far in Bangalore and Mysore. However, the other siblings have a relatively poor record including full sister Captivate and Ricardus is winless in 12 starts. However, he did run one promising race back in February with the same rider up when finishing 3rd to Super Bolt over 1200M but then flopped next time out again. He is having his first start in 7 months so could be a bit rusty but has gone a Mock Race and has been working fairly well. He could be a potential late improver and bears watching here.
ARC OF PASSION :- Another 4 year old from the relatively small yard of S.N. Joshi, she is a 12 race maiden but gave a good showing over 1200M on the opening weekend when running a good 3rd to Adam’s Beginning. She reappeared after a short break then and may have been a shade rusty when only finishing 6th but should strip fitter for that and is working quite well of late. She is another who could potentially unlock some improvement and is worth considering each way with Amyn Merchant in the saddle.
OLIVIA KASPEN :- 5 year old mare from the stables of Subhag Singh who has raced exclusively over sprints in her 15 starts till date and has one 4th placed finish to her name. She has come right down to the bottom of the scales and last time out, she finished midfield in a similar contest, just ahead of Tareef but only about 5 lengths behind the winner. She cannot drop any lower in the weights and hence could be considered as a rank outsider with NirmalJodha taking the ride again. Her full sister Serendipity was a winner over 1100M in Kolkotta so the trip looks suitable and she could cause a shock upset.
TAREEF :- 5 year old mare trained by Vinay Lagad she too is winless in 17 starts and has an official rating of 0 so she cannot go any lower. She has raced twice this season and showed some promise on her reappearance when she raced prominently and kicked on to finish 4th to Generous Lady, her best effort yet. She flopped next time out though with N.S. Parmar up in spite of the rail draw but has again been drawn 1 and N.B. Kuldeep ensures she is going almost bareback. If she is able to take a good jump and hit the front then she could score from end to end but again looks a rank outsider who is worth fluking at a long price.
CONCLUSION :- Warlock appears to have found a good chance to gain his 2nd career success, eased in grade and with Dashrath Singh in the saddle. The unexposed Bee Quirky and the well bredRicardusrate as the main dangers.
Race No. 2 :- The Pegasus Trophy – Class III – Distance :- 2400M
FRIVOLOUS :- Very highly rated 4 year old got abroad colt from the MaleshNarredu yard who has been raced sparingly and has done well in his limited career so far. He made his debut almost exactly a year ago to date and impressed when beating subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Mrs. Patmore over a mile. He could only finish 6th in the Indian 2000 Guineas but subsequently scored a smart victory over 2000M. His only run this season came back in July where he was odds on favourite to oblige but appeared disinterested for most of the journey and improved very leisurely late on to be 2nd to Nelsons Blood. He has been solidly prepared since then and steps up to this trip for the first time but still looks a classy prospect with lots of scope to improve. P.S. Chouhan takes the ride and in spite of top weight, he will be hard to beat if staying the trip which looks probable.
JAGER BOMB :- The 6 year old gelding has proven form over the 2400M trip and the Imtiaz Sait ward was a winner back in April over 2000M in the lower class. His overall record is 2 wins and 6 seconds from 26 starts and he has been slowly working his way into form this term. He needed the lung opener over a mile on reappearance but then showed he was coming to hand when a good 3rd over this trip last time out finishing 1 ½ lengths behind Vulcan. He should strip fitter for that run and with Champion Jockey Dashrath Singh booked to ride, he looks to be the main danger to Frivolous.
ASPEN :- This 5 year old mare from the stables of Zadmal Singh has also proved to be a good stayer and she is a winner of 3 of her 15 starts, all the wins coming when upped to staying distances. She took advantage of a lenient handicap mark to bounce back to winning ways over course and distance last time out, coming under strong pressure but outstaying her rivals to win convincingly with Othello back in 4th beaten 4 ½ lengths conceding 2 kilos. She now has to concede 4 kilos to Othello so is slightly worse off on the scale but she is capable of some more improvement and should try hard to repeat with Bhawani Singh retaining the ride.
OTHELLO :- 4 year old gelding from the stables of Vishal Gaikwad, he is bred to relish this trip being a full brother to Berlusconi and appears to take some time to hit top form. He has one win to his name in 8 starts so is still lightly raced and beat Jager Bomb over this trip back in Mumbai and is slightly better handicapped on that run. He travelled well for a long way last time out before being overwhelmed and stayed on again towards the finish to be 4th. Neeraj Rawal takes over, he is receiving weight all around and looks to have a strong handicap chance as he should progress again.
Race No. 3 :- The Fourth Estate Trophy – Class I – Distance :- 1400M
CELTIC PRINCE:-This handsome 6 year old gelding from the stables of S.A. Waheed hit some terrific form during the last Mumbai season which saw him go from strength to strength winning 4 of his 6 races and seeing his mark jump from 58 to 106, all the wins coming over this trip. He has been up against in two starts this term but both runs were in top company and he now drops back into a handicap which looks relatively easier and he should be fit after 2 runs. He likes to front run and should be able to dominate with the rail draw and Vishal Bunde a good start to finish rider so needs to prove that he has returned to form but looks quite capable of winning if he does so.
LUCAS :- 4 year old gelding trained by young Nazak Chenoy he looks a potential Group horse in the making and is a winner of 4 of his 8 starts so far, and runner up to Sergeant At Arms in the Indian 2000 Guineas. He was very impressive returning from a long lay off last time out to convincingly beat Exodus and Ship Rock over this trip and is sure to improve for the run and strip fitter. He appears to have maintained his form and fitness, is working well and with Santosh G up again, looks a leading fancy to continue his progression and take this.
MAGNIFICENCE :-5 year old gelding from the yard of S.K.Sunderji he is a winner of 5 of his 16 starts and was in rousing form on this track last season, rattling off 3 wins in a row with a gradual step up in trip. He appeared to suffer a setback early in the Mumbai season and has been off the track since Christmas Day so is making a reappearance after a long lay off. The booking of apprentice Parbat Singh suggests that he is out for an airing but he was in cracking form last term, and could trouble them all if fit and well after the long break.
CARBONARA :- 4 year old gelding trained by Imtiaz Sait, he appears to have finally come into his own this season and is bidding for a hattrick now after having won both his previous starts over this trip quite impressively. He finished 10 lengths behind Lucas when the pair clashed in the 2000 Guineas back in December but appears to have improved appreciably since then and in receipt of 6.5 kilos from Lucas today, he may just have the scales tilted slightly in his favour. P.S. Chouhan takes the ride and he looks to have an excellent chance to make it 3 in a row this term.
CONCLUSION :- This appears to be a straight fight between Lucas and Carbonara, with the latter possibly having the edge in receipt of 6.5 kilos. Top weight Celtic Prince can upset if returning to his old form and is also considered
Race No. 4:- The Yana Plate – Class III – Distance :-1000M
RIDER ON THE STORM :- Very speedy but now 7 years of age and has changed yards multiple times and is currently in the care of Vijay Kasbekar. He has run just once earlier this season and finished a notable 2nd to Indian Serenade in an older horses contest with the same rider but is now taking on several younger horses with more scope to improve so looks up against it under top weight. He is expected to run well with D.S. Daman in the saddle again today but looks more of a contender for minor honours and may find it difficult to win in this company.
WILD FIRE:-3 year old grey filly from the stables of Narendra Lagad, after having quite an ordinary juvenile season where she had 5 runs without any success, she has been quite a revelation this season and is now bidding for a hattrick after 2 brilliant 1000M wins. She shattered the course record whilst winning her maiden by an astonishing 14 lengths and then easily accounted for Class III opposition last time out to win as she pleased. She is up a further 9 kilos but still looks ahead of the handicapper over this trip at present and with Dashrath Singh retaining the ride and a good draw, she looks hard to oppose and should complete the hattrick.
GOLDIE’S PET:-Another progressive 3 year old, this one from the stables of Dallas Todywalla which is recently hitting form after an uncharacteristic slow start to the season, she too is a winner of 2 of her 8 starts, having finished runner up 4 times in addition and is coming off a fluent win in Class III, where she comfortably beat Triple Threat and House of Commons in a smart time with Shaoqing back in 4th. She too appears to have maintained her form and fitness and with Neeraj Rawal retaining the ride, she looks to be the main danger to Wild Fire.
ALMOST MAGICAL :- He is a sparingly raced 5 year old gelding trained by Faisal Abbas who does not appear to be completely sound but clearly has plenty of ability and is a live danger to all when fully on song. He has looked very impressive in both his wins over this trip, the last one coming on his last run in Mumbai and has had a lung opener here to blow away the cobwebs. He is expected to improve and strip fitter today and must be given a strong each way chance with Bhawani Singh in the saddle.
MOTHERLAND :- Enigmatic but smart 4 year old filly who was sold out of Dallas Todywalla’s yard and has been acquired by Adil Dajee, she has won 3 of her 9 races previously and has been well prepared for her belated reappearance on her first start for new connections. New yard could possibly have unlocked some more improvement and she is another who should be watched closely and should be a part of the overall calculations with good apprentice S.J. Sunil in the saddle.
SHAOQING :-Another potentially smart 4 year old filly, this one trained by Altaf Hussain, she is a winner of 2 of her 7 starts and last time out finished 4th to Goldie’s Pet over course and distance beaten 4 lengths in receipt of 3.5 kilos. She should improve for that run and is very closely matched with her rival in spite of the penalty. She could prove to be a danger to all from the foot of the weights with Vishal Bunde good value for his claim and she looks to have a good chance on the handicap.
CONCLUSION :- This looks likely to be fought out by the two 3 year olds Wild Fire and Goldie’s Pet with Shaoqing having a handicap chance to upset the pair from the bottom of the scale.
Race No. 5 :- The E d’Avoine Trophy – Terms, Maiden 3 Year Olds – Distance :- 1400M
ADONIJAH :- Strapping Burden of Proof colt from the powerful Pesi Shroff yard, he has run just twice till date, getting an educative run back in Mumbai on debut and showing some improvement when running on late to finish 4th to impressive Kramer in spite of still looking green and inexperienced. The dam Angel Child comes from the family of Veena’s Pet which has done very well in Western India and he is sure to improve for his last run. He may yet need some time and could come into his own later on when stepping up in trip but with A.Imran Khan booked to ride and further improvement anticipated, he could be very dangerous to ignore and must be considered seriously.
COLLEGIUM :- Just about the highest rated of these but also the most experienced with 7 starts already under his belt, he has been faring well in maidens without showing the improvement needed to gain his first victory. His last 2 starts were over 1200M but he should not be troubled by the additional furlong although his last run was a shade disappointing when Victoriana reversed the form with him. He is expected to run well again and should be involved in the finish but looks vulnerable to something which could improve past him. Each way player.
COOL EYES :- Well bred Multidimensional gelding from the stables of the wily C.D. Katrak, he has had 3 runs till date, all over 1200M and has done nothing of note as yet. However, he has been catching the eye in his recent workouts and the booking of Dashrath Singh is quite significant. He tackles this slightly longer trip for the first time and could just be coming to hand so is worth keeping an eye on. His full brother Cool Hunter performed well in Kolkotta, winning once and placing 9 times in 18 starts.
GRAND PASSAGE :- Fashionably bred got abroad gelding from the yard of Karthik G. Grand Passage has had a Mock Race to get him fit and has been working fairly well in the build up to this race. He is an unknown quantity who could be potentially smart and is worth taking into consideration with Bhawani Singh up although the yard has been struggling to find winners of late.
KHARTOUM :- Dean’s Kitten colt from the Pesi Shroff yard who is making his debut but still looks to be out for an airing and stable appear to have stronger candidate in Adonijah. However, he represents powerful connections and could be potentially smart so cannot be left out of consideration and a paddock check is advised. Dark horse.
SAGITTARIUS :- Good looking Arazan gelding from the yard of Sanjay Kolse who made a promising debut about 3 weeks ago over this trip, finishing on nicely to be runner up to Admo and is likely to improve appreciably for the run. He is expected to find plenty of improvement with the benefit of experience and with N.S. Parmar taking over from Y.S. Srinath, he looks to be the form pick in this field and is strongly fancied to go one better today.
XOXO :- This half brother to Spirit of Mercy and full brother to Milwalkee is quite highly regarded by his connections but has failed to impress in 2 starts till date. He made his debut back in Mumbai over 7 furlongs and finished a faraway 5th and ran a little better next time out dropped to 6 furlongs on this track when finishing 6th to Harmony of the Sea in an ordinary maiden. He has been brought along steadily since then and could be a contender for the minor places with T.S. Jodha up today but needs to show a little more before he can be fancied from a win perspective.
AURELIA :- This nicely bred full sister to London out of 1000 Guineas winner Fair Always looks a potentially smart type on paper and had a nice educative run over an inadequate 5 furlongs when not given a hard time to finish 4th behind Stallone. She is sure to have improved for that run and stripped fitter now and the step up to this trip will benefit her greatly. Prashant Dhebe has come down to take the ride and she looks a big danger to all and is quite capable of taking this.
CONCLUSION :- A large field of youngsters and highly competitive but the Pesi Shroff trained Adonijah is expected to show the improvement required to take this. Sagittarius made an impressive debut and is probably the form pick while the well bred Aurelia too should not be ignored and should improve significantly over this longer trip
Race No. 6 :- The Capriole Plate – Div. I – Class V – Distance :- 1000M
GRAPPA :- Well bred4 year old got abroad colt trained by young A.M. Jadhav who has slowly been coming to hand and was being hailed as the winner in a similar contest last time out before being overwhelmed close home by Tally Ho and ending up a close 3rd. He has had just 5 starts so must improve again but the negatives are a switch in riders from A. Sandesh to inexperienced apprentice S. Joseph and a wide berth in Stall 13. However, he does get a 5 kilo respite in the weights and still looks to be one of the main contenders.
JULIANO :- 4 year old gelding trained by Sanjay Kolse who was clearly in need of the run last time out when returning from an extended absence and did well to finish midfield in the higher class over this trip. He has now been eased in grade and is relatively unexposed after just 6 starts so could very well potentially improve and has been working quite well to boot. K. Nazil has been in good form this season and from Stall 3, he could well prove to be a surprise package.
ADELE :- 5 times raced 4 year old from the yard of NazakChenoy she has been progressing steadily with her racing and looked like coming to hand last time out when finishing 2nd to Super Icon over 1200M. She ran a forward race that day so should not be inconvenienced by the drop to the minimum trip and Santosh G keeps the ride. She merits each way consideration and should be involved .
MAKE IT SHINE :- 6 year old mare trained now by Vijay Kasbekar (used to be with C.D. Katrak) who gained an overdue maiden success at the 21st attempt last time out when scoring a shock victory over 1200M over Country’s Empress with the same rider up. 5 kilo penalty does not appear to be too harsh so the handicapper has given her a chance, she comes into this race in good form and should not be deterred by the drop to the minimum trip. She appears to be in good form and will try hard for a quick encore.
PRICELESS GIRL :- Lightly raced 5 year old mare owned and trained by C. Rajendra who has run 6 times till date and showed substantial improvement on her previous runs when finishing on to be 3rd to Rich N Rare over 1200M on her last start. She is still relatively unexposed and drop down to the minimum may not be ideal but she is an unknown quantity and can be involved if pulling out some more improvement with S.J. Sunil in the saddle today.
BOHEMIAN :- 11 race 4 year old maiden from the H.J. Antia who ran well last time out when returning from a long absence to finish up 4th to Elysee in the higher class and now drops in grade. Barring her last start, she had looked to be progressing nicely over 1000M back in the Mumbai season and if she can build on that last effort with regular rider N. Nadeem claiming a valuable 5 kilos, then she could very well have a part to play in the shake up.
KNIGHT AT ARMS :- Fully exposed 4 year old gelding from the yard of Vinay Lagad, he has run 15 times till date without a win and has dropped right down in the weights as a result. However, he has finished 2nd on one of his runs over this trip in Mumbai and his recent track work has been quite eye catching which suggests he may have caught some form. Dashrath Singh aboard looks a big positive and if he reproduces his good track work then he has a good each way chance.
CONCLUSION :- Very competitive with several looking to have chances and this is best avoided from a betting standpoint. The well bred Grappa is a tentative selection only
Race No. 7 :- The Pune Racing Journalists Trophy – Class IV – Distance :- 1600M
ADMO :- Improving 3 year old from the NosherCama stable who is a winner of one of his 5 starts and has showed good improvement this term. He finished ¾ length 2nd to the impressive Bateleur on his reappearance with the pair pulling well clear of the rest and then took advantage of a straightforward opportunity to gain a bloodless maiden win over 1400M, looking strongest at the finish so he should relish the additional furlong. He clearly appears to be progressing nicely now making his handicap debut and with P.S. Chouhan retaining the ride, looks a strong fancy to go in again.
RISING BRAVE :- He is a sparingly raced 4 year old colt who catches the eye on pedigree with his siblings including Coccinella, Star Goddess and Messalina, and appears to be on his way back from a setback, having run just 6 times till date. He had some handy juvenile form to his name including a fluent win over Sherlock on this course last season and warmed up for this with a good 2nd in Bangalore over 1100M. His trainer excels at readying horses after a long break and he looks a dark horse with the potential to cause an upset here with N.S. Parmar taking the ride.
FIRENZE :-Nicely bred 4 year old by Multdimensional out of Amore Mio she seems to have come to hand in her last few starts scoring a fluent maiden win on her penultimate start and returning from a long lay off to run an excellent close 3rd to Zanzibaar over 1400M last time out, finishing ½ a length behind reopposing Pacific Dunes with whom she is closely matched again today. She looks to be progressing nicely in her last few starts and looks a strong each way player with the extra furlong likely to suit her. A. Imran Khan is up again but she has been badly drawn in Stall 16 which is a negative.
HARMONY :- 5 year old mare who has shown good improvement since moving into Narendra Lagad’s yard and gained a gritty maiden success last time out over this trip when nosing out Royal Éclair in the last stride in the lower class. 4 ½ kilo penalty looks manageable and she has maintained her form and fitness but the opposition looks a whole lot tougher today and she is likely to fight it out for the minor places with winning looking a tall order.
MARVEL :- 5 year old mare from the S.K. Sunderji yard who has run 22 times till date, winning on 2 occasions but is usually quite effective in this grade and off this mark. She finished a good 3rd behind Bunting and Kodiak Queen over 1400M last time out and has been working quite well since then suggesting she is holding her form. R. Ajinkya gets along well with her and retains the ride but she is more exposed than some of these and again looks more likely to secure a minor berth.
PACIFIC DUNES :- Improving but enigmatic 4 year old trained by Bezan Chenoy he has raced 9 times till date and appears to be quite versatile with regards to trip. He likes to finish on strongly from off the pace and while he won his maiden over 1000M back in Mumbai, he finished on with a rattle last time out to be an excellent close 2nd to Zanzibaar with Firenze back in 3rd over 1400M suggesting that he will be suited by the extra yardage. He appears to have lacked consistency so far but could just be coming to hand and with further improvement, looks to have an excellent chance to return to winning ways with Santosh G up again.
FINEST MOMENT :- Untried 4 year old gelding from the powerful yard of Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy and Karthik G, he has run 6 times till date and showed some spark for racing on his first start since December when finishing on nicely to be 4th to Daffodil over 1400M and he is sure to improve for that run and strip fitter now. He is not too badly handicapped with Pacific Dunes on a line through Zanzibaar and would not have to improve a great deal to be involved over this extra furlong. Bhawani Singh retains the ride and he looks a good outsider to be on at a long price.
CONCLUSION :- A tough and competitive Class IV handicap but Admolooks to be going the right way at present and is taken to make a winning handicap debut against his elders. Pacific Dunes and Firenze look the main dangers although for those looking for slightly more value, it could pay to take a chance on Finest Moment who ran well after a long lay off last time out and has the potential to improve with the yard slowly finding some form.
Race No. 8:- The D.N. Zodge Plate – Class IV, 4 Years Old & Over – Distance :- 1000M
DOUBLE NINE :- Speedy 4 year old colt from the Nosher Cama yard, he has 1 win and 4 seconds to his name from 12 starts and did not run too badly under similar conditions last time out when finishing 4th to Crystal Ball. He looks in good touch at present, is working well and will appreciate the drop down to the minimum. P.S. Chouhan is up again today and he looks one to consider in another competitive finale.
SPEED OF SOUND :- Unreliable but capable 5 year old mare who used to be trained by AdhirajsinghJodha but recently moved to Arif Patel’s yard and gained a smart victory in a similar contest back in Mumbai with Dashrath Singh on board that day as well. She has had a preparatory run back in July and has been judiciously prepared since then. Her preparatory work has been quite pleasing and with Dashrath Singh taking over again in the saddle, a big run from her is anticipated.
RIDGEWOOD STAR :- 4 year old gelding trained and owned by Dallas Todywalla, he found form on the drop to sprinting, winning his maiden over 1200M in Mumbai and looking like coming back to that form last time out when chasing home Elysee over this trip. That field looked weaker than today’s opposition but he has the services of Suraj Narredu and is expected to be involved.
NAUMEE :- Fully exposed 5 year old mare from the yard of Faisal Abbas who finally scored at the 17th attempt when well fancied last time out, just about lasting out to hold off Speedo and prevail by a neck. Only penalized 4 kilos for that win so still has some room to breathe, has been working well since the run and stands a very good chance to provide a quick encore with C.S.Jodha up again today.
TALLY HO :-4 year old colt who came with a sparkling late run on his penultimate start to gain his first career victory on his first run for Narendra Lagad over this trip and then subsequently flopped when upped to 7 furlongs last time out. Did not look completely straightforward when beginning his career with MaleshNarredu but return to the minimum trip and winning rider D.S. Daman makes sense and he is worth giving another chance to to regain the winning thread.
HIGHLAND PRINCESS :- 4 year old filly trained by Shazaan Shah who has been knocking at the door in her last couple of starts and looks quite likely to shed her maiden tag soon, having finished a close 2nd on her last 2 attempts in the lower class. However, she is yet to prove that she can run as well in this higher grade, so although Neeraj Rawal is an eye catching booking and she looks in good form, she has struggled previously at this level and has something to prove .
CONCLUSION :- a tough finale to round out the card but the winner should emerge from between Tally Ho, Naumee, Speed of Sound and Highland Princess