FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SATURDAY, 18TH FEBRUARY 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 17 Feb 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SATURDAY, 18TH FEBRUARY 2017
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1:- The Noble Opinion Plate – Class III – 2400M
RAEES :- Looks the obvious pick here, having won his last 2 races in good style and showing he stays this trip well when scoring with authority last time out after looking in trouble turning for home. He is out handicapped by Sanam on the last run but looks the type to go on progressing and is strongly fancied to complete the hatrickand favoured in spite of being worse off on the scale.
SANAM :- Would be an obvious handicap danger as with her apprentice's allowance she is going 4 ¼ lengths better than Raees. However she has just won 1 of her 25 starts and has not convinced that she stays this trip as she came with a strong run last time but flattened out close home. Being a 6 year old she will not have that much improvement as well but she must be respected on the handicap.
NUTCRACKER :- is a very interesting alternative to the favourite. The 4 year old has stamina in her pedigree with her dam Galilean Moon a winner of 1 race from 5 starts but that was over a mile and a half. She is by Galileo out of a Slip Anchor mare so there is plenty of stamina in the pedigree. She was a convincing winner over 2000M on her penultimate start but ran well below par last time out when entrusted to a 5 kilo apprentice, finishing well behind Sanam. If that last run is ignored though, she looks likely to relish this trip and is worth chancing if available at lucrative odds.
UNCLE SCROOGE :-Is an enigmatic 5 year old who also stays well and finished 2nd a couple of times over this trip in Pune. He warmed up for this when finishing on to be 3rd to Frivolous over 2000M and he could be involved but has to concede weight to some promising youngsters and is himself not completely straightforward.
CONCLUSION :- Raeesis the confident selection for the opener with Nutcracker capable of upsetting if she bounces back from a poor last run with Neeraj back in the saddle
Race No. 2 :- The R.J. Kolah Trophy – Maidens 3 years old only – 1000M
MY PRECIOUS :- Catches the eye on pedigree, with Excellent Art already proving himself as a juvenile sire in Indian and the dam Evatina a champion sprinter in her own right. She has already thrown a couple of nice sprinting sorts like Soothsayer and Gold Glamour both of whom were by Ace. She was fancied on debut in the Gool S. Poonawalla but found it tough taking on several winners and is sure to have learnt from that experience. This looks far easier and she has been working well and looks a strong fancy to score now.
STUNNER :- Is the other runner with some form to her name having finished 4th on debut to Windsor Forest and the line looks strong with Windsor Forest and Timeless running well subsequently. She too is likely to improve for the experience, is working well since the run and her dam Monopoly was a crack 5 furlong specialist so she has the speed in her pedigree and looks a danger to all with expected improvement.
LOIRE :- She looks the pick of the stable's 4 entries in this race having done some very good prep work beforehand and should be fit and ready to go first time out, arguably working the best of this lot. Her dam Leit Motif produced the champion 7 furlong colt Beyond Belief as well as the useful Saltoroand Belgrade Belle but the pedigree looks likely to do better over middle distances in the future. She should have enough speed on debut although she is drawn widest at 13 which is a negative.
KRAMER :- Is one of the other first timers who is worth a look at. He comes from the MaleshNarredu yard who has a strong bunch of juveniles and is a half brother to Poet who's promising career was cut short by injury. He looks a little short on preparatory work and the booking of S. Mosin suggests he may be out for an airing this time. He could run into a place.
ORACLE :- Another son of Phoenix Tower, this one comes from NazakChenoy's stable and by contrast has been given a fair amount of track work in the lead up to this run. The dam Age of Magic has produced 2 previous foals. The half sister Edge of Eternity is a winner of 1 race from 11 starts, which was over 6 furlongs in Bangalore. Ashwa Rana the full brother to Oracle has had 4 starts over sprints in Delhi, placing 2nd once over 1100M. He should be fit enough to run into a place but it looks tough to win today.
HARMONY OF THE SEA :- Is the 3rd debutant who looks interesting on paper and has had a couple of impressive work outs so far. The dam Sea Value was also trained by ImtiazSait and she has produced 2 useful sorts already. Seahorse was initially trained by Imtiaz and won his maiden race in Pune before going on to win 3 races in Delhi, all his wins being over 7 furlongs. Multivalue a full sister has started promisingly winning 3 of her 6 starts in Kolkotta so far over 1100, 1200 and 1400M respectively. J.E. Pereira though is not known for riding too many winners nowadays so maybe this is an educative run but the line looks strong albeit over 7 furlongs and he looks an interesting outsider.
RISHAB'S PET :- comes from the Faisal Abbas yard and is another who has been given plenty of prep work and is working reasonably well. He too has a nice pedigree with Celtic Memories the dam having thrown the prolific Smart Strider a winner of 25 races and more recently, the likes of Celtic Prince and full brother Star Comrade. Again he looks one who will eventually do better over further but can challenge for a place berth.
SHAMWARI :- rounds out the list of possibles representing the powerful Shirke – Dhunjibhoy alliance and from the Vishal Gaikwad stable. She looks classy on paper with her dam Rosalind doing well in her limited career. She seems short on preparatory work and may just need this but has to be considered and respected.
CONCLUSION :- My Precious and Stunner appear to be the pair to concentrate on but Shamwari, Harmony Of The Sea and Rishab's Pet all look interesting debutantes who are capable of springing a surprise
Race No. 3:- The G2 Gold Cup – Class IV – 1800M
STAR OF HARMONY :- Has raced just 4 times till date and made a triumphant start to her Western India campaign by winning decisively over a mile last time out, coming with a strong burst to wear down Nelson's Blood another unexposed improver. She has been working well since the win, looks likely to appreciate the longer trip and should be able to tackle the 5 ½ kilo penalty. Veena's Pet has had a successful career as a broodmare, throwing the likes of Romantic Liaison and Clinton and Star of Harmony can improve further over distance trips.
PILATUS :- Apparently had problems with the gates and made a late start to his racing career. He made his debut on the 12th of January over 7 furlongs and caught the eye in the straight, making late headway from the rear to come and finish an eye catching 2nd. He is sure to improve for that run and strip fitter and looks a big danger to all if making normal progression.
RELENTLESS PURSUIT :- Began his career with C. Rajendra and was very highly thought of but failed to deliver. He shifted to ImtiazSait's yard and had a lung opener on New Years day after a long absence where he ran on to finish 5th. He was fancied last week but was hampered in the straight and dropped the rider and is turned out again quickly. He is more exposed than Star of Harmony and Pilatus but could improve for his new yard and makes the short list.
BOOK THIEF :- Represents the same connections as Pilatus and now attempts this trip having been used as a pacemaker in the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks. She made a promising start to her career but then ran just modestly over a variety of trips, her sole success being a pillar to post win over 6 furlongs in Pune. Her trainer is still experimenting with her but she could upset if this longer trip turns out to suit her.
GODSENT :- Is well bred by Multidimensional out of Congrats but his 3 runs this season have been below par after his smart victory over Mathaiyus over a mile in Pune. He needs to be held up and delivered late and wide and could be factor if the gaps appear at the right time but in the overall scenario, he is best passed over in his current form.
CONCLUSION :- Star of Harmony looks likely to continue her progression and win this with Pilatus and Relentless Pursuit looking the main dangers. Book Thief also looks interesting now being tried over a new trip
Race No. 4 :- The Fedora Plate – Class V – 1000M
WHAT A NICE GIRL :- Has raced 5 times till date and was strongly fancied in a similar contest last time out but got hemmed up on the rails and could not get an opening, ending up 7th but just 3 lengths off the winner. That run is best ignored and she is likely to make a much stronger attempt now with the booking of A. Sandesh a huge positive. She looks the one to beat and a change of name may bring about a change in luck.
BOHEMIAN :- Looks the pick of Hormuz Antia's 2 entries. The 4 year old is a maiden after 9 starts but has been running well over sprints this season. Her last 2 runs have been over this trip and she finished 2nd to Fashionable Gait on her penultimate run and then ended 4th to Be Bold last time out. She looks in good nick and could shed her maiden tag here but unfortunately has drawn the extreme outside draw at 19 and that could prove to be a hindrance.
FOREVER YOURS :- The 5 year old mare formerly trained by ImtiazSait has dropped down markedly in the scales and took advantage of her lenient mark when finishing 3rd last time out, just ahead of The Giver. However, she had the rail draw that day and is now drawn 18 so although she comes into consideration, she may find it hard to win with C.S. Jodha retaining the ride. Subhag Singh has been trying all of his small string of late and she must be considered.
PACIFIC DUNES :- Looks a very interesting contender here, dropping down markedly in trip. The BezanChenoy ward is making his handicap debut after 4 runs in maiden company over distances between 6 furlongs and a mile, making no show on each occasion. It is unknown whether he will have the speed to cope with this minimum trip but he is a potential improver and looks the dark horse here.
APPLE BETTY :- The 4 year old filly has been getting fit with her racing and has shown some good speed in the morning gallops as well. She showed signs of coming to hand last time out when 5th just 3 length behind Bohemian and if she can improve on that effort, then she could be a major player here.
HEADLINES :- Is another unexposed 4 year old and Altaf Hussain has been having a very good season this far. She has raced 4 times till date with feeble riders and is now eased in grade and talented claimer takes over for the first time. She has been untried till date and is an unknown quantity who could be involved.
RICH N RARE :- She is a 15 race maiden but has run well several times over this trip including last time out when finishing on well to be a nice 3rd to Be Bold just in front of Bohemian with the same rider. She looks handily placed on the scales and is one to consider with Narendra Lagad often pulling out a winner in these competitive events..
CONCLUSION :- As usual these events are very competitive and winner picking is extremely tough. However, What A Nice Girl is quite confidently recommended here with Bohemian appearing the main danger and both Pacific Dunes and Apple Betty having the potential to upset.
Race No. 5 – The Style Cracker Night Market Trophy – Div.2- Class V – 1400M
OSCILLATION :- The 5 year old gelding has come right down in the scales following a string of poor efforts but he gave the first signs of some ability over 9 furlongs on his last start when he ran on to finish 3rd just 2 lengths behind Winter Renaissance who has gone on to finish an impressive 4th in the Oaks and the Derby. Shazaan Shah has begun his career in promising fashion and with Sandesh now declared to ride, he looks a leading contender.
SWEEPING MOVE :- She is very lightly raced for her age and has been working herself back into form this season after returning from a long absence. She ran a cracker over a mile on Derby Day where she was pipped close home by an unexposed sort and is expected to make a bold bid again today so she is a strong fancy.
TIME OF MY LIFE :- the well bred 4 year old, a half sister to Merchant of Venice, has raced 8 times till date mainly over sprint trips, finishing a close 2nd to Mt Tianmen over 6 furlongs in Pune and last time out running on late to make the frame behind Lady In Red. She has been working exceptionally well of late, is eased in grade into the lowest class and has a good jockey up for the first time so she has plenty of positives and looks a strong each way contender.
SMART CHOICE :- Is an 11 race maiden who used to be trained by Pesi Shroff and she was backed at long prices last time out when finishing a good 2nd to Name of the Game over 6 furlongs. Her new Trainer may have pulled out some improvement, she should not mind the extra furlong and if progressing again, she can be involved
RARE SILVER :- Has also been untried till date and has been gaining fitness from his races but the 5 year old was backed each way with J.E. Pereira up last time out and he could prove to be a lively outsider so keep an eye if money comes for him again with Santosh G. now taking over in the saddle.
CONCLUSION :- Oscillation is the selection to continue the terrific start to young Shazaan Shah's career but the list of dangers is long with Sweeping Move and Time of my Life feared the most
Race No. 6 :- The A. Campbell Trophy – Class II – 1200M
LUCAS :- After initially taking his time to come to hand, Lucas has been hugely progressive in his last few starts. He was an impressive winner of back to back races over 7 furlongs in Pune and Mumbai and then finished a notable 2nd to Serjeant At Arms in the Indian 2000 Guineas. He veered out badly at the 2000M marker in the Indian Derby and took no further part in that race, so that run is best ignored. He now drops to 6 furlongs which may be on the sharp side for him but looks very progressive and should be able to regain the winning thread.
ALISHA'S PET :- The 5 year old is relatively sparingly raced and has a good overall record with 3 wins from 10 races. She comes into this off a battling win in the lower class, seems to have maintained her form and fitness and enjoys a 9 kilo pull at the weights with Lucas so she could prove to be a big danger with her yard in great form.
ANCIENT GLORY :- Is another who seems to be at his best on the Mahalaxmi track with his last four runs on the track being 3 wins and a close 2nd. He gave weight a beating to Franz Ferdinand last time out and seems to be in top form so is worth noting with Sandesh booked to ride and only a 4 ½ kilo penalty.
HIDDEN SOUL :- The 5 year old mare had been rapidly progressing up the handicap ranks in Pune but seems to have been off colour this Mumbai season although her last effort was encouraging where she finished on to be a close 3rd to Shivalik Shine. She looks to be coming back to her best and with the in form Neeraj Rawal in the saddle, she merits each way consideration.
THE CIVILIAN :- He is now 7 years of age and does not appear to be totally straightforward but showed he still retains ability when only ½ length behind Ancient Glory in receipt of 7 kilos and he now receives 4 kilos from that rival. He looks very well placed on the scales and looks a handicap chance who could upset so keep an eye and he is worth supporting at a price.
CONCLUSION :- Lucas looks the class horse in the field and is taken to win in spite of top weight and the trip being sharp. The Civilian looks a big danger on the handicap as does the consistent and in form Ancient Glory
Race No. 7:- The Thumbelina Million – Class III – 1000M
CYCLONE :- He has never finished out of the first three in 6 starts till date and was probably undone by the draw last time out when he was moving the fastest at the finish and ended up a very close 3rd in a blanket finish. He takes the step up in class without a win and has again be handed a tough draw in 12 but he is in cracking form and is still given a strong chance to make amends.
ARABELLE :- Is another progressive 4 year old who has won twice from 5 starts. She returned from a long absence last time out and was flying at the death ending up a very close 4th just behind Minstrel Heights and Free Speech and she looks likely to improve the most out of the trio. Suraj takes over in the saddle now and she is given an excellent chance.
MINSTREL HEIGHTS :- Has already proved himself as a quality 5 furlong specialist and he bounced back from an indifferent performance to be a close 2nd last time out, just shading Free Speech and Arabelle. He is more exposed than Arabelle and Cyclone but is tough and consistent and should be involved in the finish.
QUEEN CREDIBLE :- She has been tried over varying trips between 5 furlongs and a mile but her best form has proved to be over this trip. She finished on to be 2nd to Cataleya last time out but is at her best when coming from off a strong pace in a big field so she should get the conditions to suit her and is very dangerous to leave out of calculations.
FREE SPEECH :- The 6 year old has had his problems but looked on the way back to form with a cracking effort last time out when he finished a close 3rd splitting Minstrel Heights and Arabelle. He is expected to run well again but seems to lack the scope of the younger horses and looks more of a place contender again.
ALPINE EXPRESS :- She is a speedy mare who has won twice in 10 starts last time showing a clean pair of heels to her rivals to win from end to end. Today's opposition looks much tougher but she is running off a feather weight of 45.5 kilos and looks a rank outsider who may just be able to cause an upset.
ART DECO :- The 4 year old has been generally disappointing since scoring a bloodless maiden win in Pune and is making a belated reappearance in a very tough contest. He was well held by Undisputed and Abbey last time out and this looks very tough on that form. However, he has been tracking extremely well of late and it may be that he goes best fresh so he is worthy of consideration in this competitive event.
CONCLUSION :- A race which is worthy of being the day's feature with several seeming to have a chance. Cyclone is the tentative selection from Arabelleand Queen Credible
Race No. 8 :- The Style Cracker Night Market Trophy – Div.1 - Class V – 1400M
CRISTO BOSS :- The 4 year old was tried for the first time on his last run in Pune and was heavily fancied but could only finish 2nd to Marvel over this trip. He was withdrawn on his intended reappearance so is making his debut this season but is still relatively unexposed. He is expected to have improved further, is working well and with C.S. Jodha a positive booking for the yard, he is expected to run a big race.
KISS FROM A ROSE :- Has a similar profile to Cristo Boss and hinted that her turn was not far away last time out when finishing on well to be a good 2nd to Jetaway. She too appears to be going the right way and if she can build on that last effort then she looks the one to beat.
SIMONA :- She has a nice pedigree but has generally been disappointing in her career till date and does not seem too consistent. She ran a fine race on reappearance when finishing a close 2nd over a mile but finished way down the field next time out and now has something to prove. She returns from a short break and may have been freshened up but has to bounce back from the last poor effort.
VITESSE :- The 5 year old has been campaigning mainly over distance trips but she finished a fair 4th over this trip last time out and is being sent over it again today. She has been working well and Sandesh has been booked for the ride so she merits each way consideration and could add some pep to the finish.
KNIGHT'S QUEST :-He is unplaced in 8 starts till date but ran a promising race on derby day where he led from the start and was only overwhelmed close home over a mile. The drop to 7 furlongs should suit him better and N.S. Parmar is an excellent front running rider so he could go well at a price and should not be ignored.
CONCLUSION :- Kiss from a Rose and Cristo Boss are expected to fight it out between them with Knights Quest capable of upsetting if allowed an easy lead up front.
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
